Latin America Daily Security Brief

Colombia heads into its presidential first round in what El País and France 24 describe as the worst peak of violence in a decade. The two leading candidates are Iván Cepeda (polling at roughly 44.6%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (31.6%), with the race defined by a stark choice: continued dialogue with armed groups or a return to hard security measures. Colombia Reports confirmed campaigns were suspended before the first round vote.

The government deployed more than 400,000 uniformed personnel to secure polling stations nationwide, according to Colombian Army releases. Active conflict zones — including ELN-controlled corridors in Catatumbo, Norte de Santander, and Chocó — pose disruption risks on election day. An ELN-attributed attack was reported in the last 24 hours, per El Tiempo.

The ELN peace table remains completely stalled following the Catatumbo offensive that displaced more than 100,000 people earlier this year. Multiple sources confirm neither side has moved toward resuming formal talks. AFP reports that armed-group disinformation is actively circulating in the campaign, targeting both leading candidates.

A separate story with long-term implications: El Espectador and Infobae both report that hundreds of former Colombian military personnel have been recruited by a UAE-linked firm, identified as A4SI, to fight in Sudan. An international report has called for an investigation into the individuals and companies involved. Colombian veterans fighting abroad isn't new, but the scale and corporate structure described here is.

Colombian armed groups — the ELN, FARC dissidents, and the Ejército Gaitanista de Colombia — are now deploying explosive drones against military targets, according to CONtexto Ganadero and corroborating Colombian defense sources. A Colombian mercenary currently fighting in Ukraine told Infobae the drone warfare model he's seeing there is already being adapted by illegal armed organizations back home.

Bolivia's political and economic crisis intensified sharply over the past 24 hours. Bloomberg reported sovereign bonds fell for a tenth consecutive day on May 26, with roadblocks by Aymara campesino groups, the Central Obrera Boliviana (COB), and Evo Morales supporters choking supply lines into La Paz, El Alto, and Oruro.

Medical supply shortages are the most urgent on-the-ground risk. Infobae reported that medical oxygen, intravenous supplies, and other critical inputs are running low in La Paz and El Alto hospitals as thousands of vehicles remain stranded on national highways, including routes to Chilean and Peruvian ports.

President Rodrigo Paz cut his salary in half on May 25, framing it as a gesture of solidarity. Reuters reported the move came as security forces deployed tear gas against protesters in Apacheta and other flashpoints. Protest leaders are demanding Paz's resignation — not just policy reversals — which narrows his negotiating room considerably.

Brazil announced it will send humanitarian aid to Bolivia, per Agência Brasil. The gesture is notable but logistically complicated given the road blockades. Bolivia's mining sector is also taking measurable damage — Reuters and Bloomberg cited production delays and export losses in the hundreds of millions as arteries to Chilean ports remain blocked.

Mexican authorities arrested Isaí 'N,' identified as a nephew of Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán and an alleged Los Chapitos operator, according to El País. Intelligence reports cited in Infobae place him as a logistics figure within the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel. The arrest is the latest in a string of high-profile Chapitos-linked detentions as the Sinaloa internal war grinds on.

CJNG was formally linked to armed attacks in Tecomán and Armería, Colima, per El Universal. A separate operation in the state on May 26 left one criminal dead and two police officers wounded, with cartel-attributed road blockades closing highways in retaliation, reported by El País México.

With the FIFA World Cup opening in mid-June, El Financiero and journalist Ioan Grillo both report that cartel leadership is signaling restraint to rank-and-file: 'Don't mess with the World Cup.' Security analysts quoted by El Financiero say groups will be 'prudent' during the tournament to avoid increased federal attention and international scrutiny. Whether discipline holds below the command level is the real question.

InSight Crime published a detailed review today of the 10 most emblematic cases of high-level Mexican officials with confirmed organized crime ties — spanning the Chapitos, BLO, CJNG, Sinaloa Cartel, and Juárez Cartel. The piece is analytical background, but its timing — days before the World Cup and amid the Sinaloa war — makes it a useful baseline on how deeply institutional corruption enabled the current criminal landscape.

Culiacán remains under persistent armed tension. Grupo Animal's on-the-ground reporting from May 26 describes military presence at every major intersection with active gunfights audible at night in multiple neighborhoods. The Sinaloa civil war that began in late 2024 has not abated.

Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips are in active negotiations with Acting President Delcy Rodríguez's government over re-entry terms, the Financial Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Both companies are seeking durable production-sharing agreements and resolution of billions in outstanding arbitration awards before committing. Sources describe the Rodríguez government as genuinely willing to negotiate contract terms.

The geopolitical context is significant. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has publicly framed Venezuelan oil sector recovery as a national security priority — specifically, displacing Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence. OilPrice.com reported that Asian buyers, particularly India, have been rapidly expanding Venezuelan oil relationships precisely because U.S. sanctions disrupted traditional supply chains.

Human Rights Watch's Venezuela country page, updated yesterday, notes three simultaneous crises: political repression of opponents and journalists, a humanitarian emergency affecting 7 million people, and a diaspora exodus exceeding 7 million. The ICC and UN Fact-Finding Mission continue documenting potential crimes against humanity.

The AP published a ground-level dispatch from Guayaquil on May 26 capturing the security situation: multiple provinces under states of emergency, night curfews in effect, thousands of military and police deployed against drug trafficking networks, a fuel crisis causing economic disruption, and a volatile border with Colombia. This is not a new situation but the AP framing reflects how entrenched and normalized the crisis has become.

Ecuador's economy is not recovering fast enough to address its core structural problem: formal employment. A forum in Guayaquil on May 27 featuring former Finance Minister Fausto Ortiz concluded that private sector growth and non-oil exports are driving modest recovery, but economic growth is barely keeping pace with population increase. Oil is no longer the fiscal engine, and the cost of importing refined fuel products eats into the benefit of crude exports.

Latin America Reports flagged an Amazon organized crime report on May 26 — relevant to Ecuador's eastern Amazonian border zones, where criminal networks operating in narcotics and illegal extraction have expanded reach into Sucumbíos and Orellana provinces.

Panama's National Police seized 1,096 packages of drugs in Pacific waters near the Costa Rican border on May 26, per multiple Panamanian outlets. Separately, under the ongoing 'Plan Firmeza,' Panamanian police arrested 677 people in 72 hours — 376 on warrants, 54 in flagrante, and 39 specifically for drug trafficking.

Foreign ministers Manuel Tovar (Costa Rica) and Javier Martínez-Acha (Panama) met at the United Nations in New York on May 26 to defuse a running bilateral trade dispute. The two sides agreed to establish joint working tables on trade, customs, security, and migration. La Nación and Newsroom Panama both confirmed the agreement. The underlying dispute — rooted in Panama's trade restrictions on Costa Rican goods that a WTO panel ruled against in October 2024 — remains unresolved, but the diplomatic channel is now reopened.

The U.S. military conducted a lethal strike on a narco-trafficking vessel in the Eastern Pacific, killing an alleged narco-terrorist, according to reporting published roughly 9 hours ago. The Eastern Pacific corridor is a primary artery for cocaine moving toward Central America and Mexico. No further details on the vessel's affiliation were available at time of publication.

Agência Brasil reported on May 26 that Brazil registered its lowest homicide rate since 2014. The number of young people killed dropped by a third between 2014 and 2024. Brazil also reached its highest Human Development Index score in history. These are genuinely significant data points for a country that has long struggled with structural criminal violence.

That positive headline sits alongside a more complicated structural picture. A Diálogo Américas / Small Wars Journal analysis published May 26 describes Brazil's criminal landscape as 'fragmenting and expanding.' The PCC is building international partnerships into Europe and Asia while using market-regulation models to control territory. The CV has consolidated Amazonian corridors. Nearly 90 regional factions now operate alongside these two majors.

Brazil's Supreme Court rejected the release of convicts in the Marielle Franco murder case, per Agência Brasil. Thirty-five people were also rescued from slave-like labor conditions in São Paulo. Separately, Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to Washington seeking Trump's support for designating Brazilian crime groups as terrorist organizations, per France 24 — a move that would have significant legal and operational implications for PCC and CV figures with U.S. exposure.

Interpol, in coordination with the OAS, concluded Operation Orca XI — a sweep across 19-20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Final numbers: 8,700+ arrests, 3,308 illegal firearms seized, 56 tons of drugs confiscated, roughly 200,000 rounds of ammunition, $256,025 in cash, and 210 vehicles. Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, and Paraguay were among the named participants.

Interpol Secretary General Valdecy Urquiza called the operation a 'real step forward against organized crime.' Paraguay and El Salvador also signed a bilateral prosecutorial cooperation agreement for transnational organized crime and money laundering within the same 24-hour window, per Infobae.

The operation's scale is notable, but context matters. The same reporting window produced analysis from Diálogo Américas showing Brazilian criminal groups expanding internationally, and from ACLED showing the Trump administration's 'Donroe Doctrine' reshaping conflict patterns across the hemisphere. Orca XI is a snapshot — the trend lines run the other way.

InSight Crime published a major investigative piece (flagged as approximately 2 days old, at the edge of the freshness window) on the murder of a former Sandinista rebel, arguing it illustrates a pattern: the Ortega government is systematically persecuting political opponents, contracting assassins to kill exiles in foreign countries — including Costa Rica — and potentially shielding domestic criminal interests. The piece names Costa Rica specifically as a venue for state-directed violence against Nicaraguan exiles.

Honduran Security Minister Eduardo Asfura met with U.S. counterpart Moreno to reinforce bilateral cooperation against organized crime, migration, and narcotrafficking. The Honduran government framed the meeting around a 'shared vision for a safer hemisphere.' No specific new initiatives were announced, but the meeting comes as Honduras seeks to deepen U.S. security assistance amid persistent gang and cartel pressure.

Cuba announced an amnesty covering more than 2,000 prisoners — described by MSN as the largest in years — on May 26. The release comes as the Trump administration is applying a Venezuelan-style pressure campaign: oil blockade, sanctions targeting the GAESA military holding company, and Raúl Castro's indictment.

AP reporting on May 26 draws a direct parallel between U.S. Cuba strategy and the Venezuela playbook. Canada's travel advisory warns of worsening shortages of fuel, electricity, food, water, and medicine. WLRN reported a debate over whether Cuba's 22-hour blackouts are directly tied to the U.S. oil blockade — Marco Rubio has denied a direct connection, but the timing and severity are hard to separate.

The Dominican Republic is moving forward with a $300 million-plus private investment to build a network of dry ports along its border with Haiti — announced by President Luis Abinader on February 27 and now entering implementation planning. The stated goal is economic management of border flows, but the security subtext is clear: reducing gang-controlled smuggling corridors and formalizing commerce that currently moves through criminal networks.