Latin America Daily Security Brief

President Trump on Thursday said he would be 'happy' to use military force against Cuba, and Secretary of State Rubio followed by formally declaring Cuba a U.S. national security threat — citing the island's alliances with Russia and China and its role as, in Rubio's words, 'one of the leading sponsors of terrorism in the entire region.' Rubio added that the odds of a diplomatic resolution are 'not high,' given current Cuban leadership.

The DOJ indicted former President Raúl Castro on murder charges the same day, making him the second former head of state in the region criminally charged by Washington after Maduro's January capture. Cuba and the U.S. lack an extradition treaty, making trial essentially impossible — the charges are widely read as political pressure and legal groundwork, not near-term prosecution.

The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier, on a previously scheduled South American training deployment that included exercises with the Brazilian Navy, repositioned into the Caribbean in recent days. The move closely mirrors the Gerald Ford's role in the January Maduro operation, per a U.S. official cited by the New York Times. Cuba's Foreign Ministry accused Rubio of trying to 'instigate a military aggression.'

CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Havana on May 14 and told Cuban officials that Washington would 'seriously engage' if Cuba made 'fundamental changes' — a message that appears to have gone unheeded. Cuba's current vulnerability is severe: ongoing energy crisis, effective U.S. oil blockade, and cascading food and water shortages. Analysts cited by CNBC say state security forces can likely contain unrest short-term, but a prolonged blackout scenario could force improvised responses from both sides.

Cuban President Díaz-Canel defended Raúl Castro at a state event marking Castro's upcoming 95th birthday on June 3, framing the charges as a political attack. Separately, Cuba's Foreign Ministry described an exchange with Washington as 'respectful and professional' and free of threats — a notably different tone from Havana's public messaging, suggesting back-channel communication is still active.

At least 24 people were killed across two separate organized crime attacks on May 22, making it one of the deadliest single days in Honduras in recent memory. The first attack struck the community of Corinto, in Colón department, where gunmen killed at least 19 civilians. The second occurred hours later in Omoa, Cortés department — on the Guatemalan border — where five DIPAMPCO elite anti-gang and anti-narcotics officers were abducted and executed during an operation targeting a drug trafficking leader.

Honduran security authorities suspended the DIPAMPCO unit's top three commanders — its director, deputy director, and operations chief — citing 'alleged irregularities in the planning and execution' of the Omoa operation. Separate Honduran and Guatemalan intelligence sources, cited by El Heraldo and RT, allege the slain officers were attempting to seize a drug and cash shipment rather than conducting a legitimate interdiction. The investigation is ongoing.

President Nasry 'Tito' Asfura condemned both attacks and announced military deployments to the affected zones. Security Minister Gerson Velásquez confirmed a crisis command center is now active, pulling together military, intelligence, and prosecutorial units. Asfura suggested specialized 'national authority' judges may be designated to process suspects.

Security Minister Velásquez linked the Corinto massacre to structures associated with the 'Cartel del Diablo,' which Honduran officials have connected to Mexican organized crime networks, including CJNG. The CJNG link has not been independently confirmed. Honduras currently has a homicide rate of 27 per 100,000, the highest in Central America, according to El País.

Honduras passed new security legislation in the days prior, authorizing military participation in public security tasks, creating an organized crime division, and allowing cartels and gangs to be designated as terrorist organizations. Yesterday's attacks are the first major test of whether that legal framework changes anything on the ground.

Protesters — a coalition of miners, farmers, teachers, and Indigenous groups — have maintained road blockades choking access to La Paz for nearly two weeks, creating serious food and fuel shortages in the capital. AP photojournalism from May 22 shows police using tear gas on mountain roads in new attempts to clear the blockades; authorities have not fully succeeded. Dynamite blasts by miners during demonstrations were also documented.

President Rodrigo Paz fired his Labor Minister and promised protesters greater input into policymaking in an attempt to reduce tension. He also repealed a land-collateral law passed the previous month that small farmers said exposed them to land seizures by agribusiness. Neither concession has ended the protests.

The conservative regional bloc — El Salvador, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and the United States — has publicly characterized the protests as destabilizing and tied to drug trafficking, backing Paz. Evo Morales remains a key opposition figure behind the demonstrations, though the movement is ideologically heterogeneous.

Bolivia's protests come amid a deeper economic crisis involving fuel shortages and currency pressure. The country's vulnerability to supply disruptions through La Paz is structural — roads into the capital are few and easily blockaded.

Colombia's first-round presidential election is scheduled for May 31, and the campaign has become the deadliest in decades. DW reported that the motorcade of ruling-party Senator Alexander López came under fire on a highway in the southwestern region earlier this week. A presidential candidate was assassinated earlier in the campaign cycle, and bomb attacks in the south have marked recent weeks.

On Wednesday, both the FARC's Central General Staff (Estado Mayor Central) and the ELN separately announced ceasefires ahead of the May 31 vote. The timing is notable — neither group has disarmed, and previous electoral ceasefires have not held consistently. The ceasefires are tactical declarations, not structural disengagement.

The UN issued a fresh warning about a 'grave deterioration' of security in the Catatumbo region, where a recent massacre added to an already catastrophic displacement toll. By early 2026, roughly 100,000 people had been displaced from Catatumbo — approximately half the region's total population — with over 12,000 confined. The Colombian Army launched a new military operation in Briceño, Norte de Antioquia, in the rural area where FARC dissidents killed journalist Mateo Pérez on May 5.

In Nariño department, armed conflict between two criminal structures has displaced 500 families over three months, with 370 people sheltering in a sports arena in Linares as of this report, per El Tiempo. The Army is deployed in the zone; no deaths have been confirmed in the most recent displacement wave.

The Colombian Army recovered a 15-year-old boy forcibly recruited by the Isaías Carvajal Front of the FARC's Calarcá-aligned dissidents during operations by the Fourth Army Division in eastern Colombia. The Defensoría del Pueblo reported 25 new cases of child recruitment by armed groups in 2026 so far, per Diario Occidente.

Venezuela has become India's third-largest crude oil supplier in May, delivering roughly 417,000 barrels per day — up from 283,000 bpd in April and zero for the nine months prior, per energy cargo tracker Kpler. The surge is directly tied to the Hormuz crisis and India's need to replace Iranian barrels. Venezuelan crude reentered the market after the U.S. eased sanctions following Acting President Delcy Rodríguez's government's cooperation posture post-Maduro.

Acting President Rodríguez is scheduled to travel to India next week to negotiate oil sales, a trip publicly confirmed by Secretary Rubio during his own May 23–26 visit to New Delhi. Rubio framed Venezuelan oil as part of a broader U.S. energy diplomacy push toward India: 'We want to sell them as much energy as they'll buy. We also think there are opportunities with Venezuelan oil.'

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance publicly warned that Venezuela still has a 'long ways to go' before justifying major investment, telling Bloomberg that a government take near 95% 'will not do.' The OFAC General Licenses 49 and 50, issued in February, authorize preliminary negotiations and certain transactions — but Lance's comments signal that production-sharing terms remain a major barrier to the large-scale Western investment Caracas needs.

Venezuela's Amnesty and Democratic Coexistence Law has benefited nearly 9,000 individuals since its February 19 promulgation, per teleSUR. The law is part of Rodríguez's post-Maduro political normalization effort, though human rights groups continue to document detainees outside the amnesty framework.

The DOJ unsealed an indictment in the Eastern District of Virginia charging Chinese nationals Ruhuan Zhen and Hongce Wu with laundering cartel proceeds from November 2016 through April 2025 on behalf of both the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG. The network used mirror transfers, offshore bank accounts, encrypted communications apps, and serial-number verification systems to move money tied to fentanyl and cocaine sales. Both suspects remain at large. Each faces a maximum 20-year sentence if convicted.

Mexico's financial enforcement authorities froze the accounts of Sinaloa's state governor and nine associates, all wanted in the United States on drug charges. President Sheinbaum publicly defended the governor's innocence while acknowledging the asset freeze, per Breitbart/Cartel Chronicles. The governor of Sinaloa being subject to a U.S. drug warrant is a significant political complication for the Sheinbaum administration.

The Mexican Army located a cartel camp near Escuinapa, Sinaloa, bearing insignia linked to 'El Güero Pin,' a regional operator, after an armed attack on authorities along a highway. Weapons, explosives, and tactical equipment were recovered; the explosives were destroyed on-site, per Infobae.

An armed attack on authorities temporarily closed the Mazatlán–Tepic highway on May 21. Separately, three suspected Sinaloa Cartel members were arrested in Manzanillo, Colima. Armored vehicle requests in Mexico rose up to 20% in recent months as security perceptions worsen, per Infobae.

A CIA aircraft crashed in the Sierra Tarahumara following a drug lab raid, killing the agents aboard. AOL reported Mexico is weighing a response. The governor of Chihuahua denied authorizing CIA participation in the April operation but defended coordination with Washington on counternarcotics, per El País.

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino formally suspended electricity sales to Costa Rica, escalating a bilateral trade dispute that began over agricultural export restrictions. Mulino told Costa Rican authorities 'suave' — essentially, no energy sales for now — following a meeting between ICE (Costa Rica's state electricity utility) and Panamanian energy officials on Monday.

Costa Rica's ICE pushed back publicly, saying the country holds no firm energy contracts with Panama and is not currently importing Panamanian electricity. ICE stated Costa Rica has sufficient reserves for all of 2026 and faces no risk of rationing or blackouts. The statement appears aimed at limiting political damage from Mulino's announcement.

Costa Rica's incoming president Laura Fernández raised the dispute publicly, framing it as economic coercion. Panama's Chamber of Commerce backed Mulino, asserting Panama's right to defend its commercial interests and national producers after what it called years of Costa Rican sanitary and trade barriers. Both countries' business chambers are now publicly staking out positions, making quiet resolution more difficult.

President Lula publicly expressed concern about a potential U.S. incursion into the Amazon, following Trump's broader regional assertiveness and the USS Nimitz's South American patrol. The Brazilian Army is simultaneously advancing a transformation plan involving troop reorganization and increased use of technology.

InSight Crime reported the arrest of alleged Albanian drug trafficker Ervin Mata in Brazil, the latest example of Balkan-origin criminal networks operating as service providers in Latin America's cocaine trade. Balkan actors — particularly Albanians — function across the supply chain: as wholesale buyers, logistics managers, and security contractors working with Colombian and Brazilian trafficking groups, primarily for European cocaine markets.

The Brazilian government launched the 'Safe Territory, Sovereign Amazon' program, covering integrated operations against drug trafficking, illegal mining, environmental crime, and armed violence across 42 municipalities in six Amazonian states, alongside social prevention measures.

Argentina's Interior Security Ministry convened the first NOA (Northwestern Argentina) Federal Security Council session in Tucumán on May 22, attended by the governors of Tucumán, Salta, Jujuy, and Santiago del Estero alongside Minister Alejandra Monteoliva. The session focused on coordinating anti-narcotics strategy, combating illegal flights, and strengthening border controls.

The governor of Jujuy warned that more than 60% of cocaine-related narco activity in Argentina passes through the NOA region. Salta's governor called for unified national-provincial coordination, noting that 'organized crime does not respect limits or borders.' Argentina also created a new security working group to protect projects under the RIGI (Large Investment Incentive Regime) framework from organized crime infiltration.

AP News reported from Guayaquil that youth soccer academies — including the Barcelona SC academy that produced Ecuador national team star Piero Hincapié — now operate behind guards and in secured, closed facilities. Children who once played in public parks and streets of cities like Esmeraldas can no longer do so safely due to organized crime.

Ecuador's security situation in the Guayaquil metro area continues to deter normal civic life ahead of the 2026 World Cup, where Ecuador is a participating nation. The secured-training dynamic reported by AP illustrates how deeply normalized the threat environment has become for ordinary families.

Nicaraguan human rights organizations and opposition groups publicized the case of Angélica Chavarría — former partner of Humberto Ortega (brother of President Daniel Ortega) — who is being held as a political prisoner. Authorities reportedly exhibited her publicly, which rights groups condemned as a form of intimidation. Centroamérica360 reported the case is consistent with documented patterns of isolation, incommunicado detention, and family visit restrictions affecting political prisoners in Nicaragua.

Republican presidential candidate José Antonio Kast has made illegal immigration and cross-border crime his central campaign issue in Chile's upcoming election, drawing direct comparisons to Trump's political playbook. Kast has focused specifically on security threats associated with irregular migration through Chile's northern border region, an area that has seen increased narcotics and weapons trafficking in recent years.

Chile was among the regional conservative bloc that publicly characterized Bolivia's ongoing protests as destabilizing and drug-trafficking-linked, aligning with the U.S., Argentina, and Peru in backing President Rodrigo Paz.